harare24dmin Harare, 5 November 2025
Zimbabwe’s economy is showing remarkable resilience and recovery as it navigates a challenging global environment, firmly placing it on a progressive trajectory towards the goal of achieving an Upper Middle-Income Economy by 2030. Key policy interventions, particularly in monetary and fiscal management, have yielded encouraging stability, setting the stage for robust growth. If we are being honest the situation has improved, you can now plan and you know that the rate is likely to be at the same spot in the next 60 to 90 days unlike previous times when the rate changed daily if not weekly.
The figures for 2025 paint a picture of an economy successfully bouncing back from the previous year’s climate-induced slowdown.
| Indicator | Projection/Status (2025) | Story the Numbers Tell |
| Real GDP Growth | 6.0% (IMF Projection) | A strong rebound from 1.7% in 2024, driven by improved agricultural conditions (following the El Niño drought) and record-high gold prices. This demonstrates the effectiveness of government support for key productive sectors. |
| Annual Average Inflation (CPI) | 89.0% (IMF Projection) | A significant moderation from the extremely high rates of previous years. The introduction and stabilization of the gold-backed local currency, the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG), and tighter monetary policy have been crucial in anchoring prices. |
| ZiG Currency Stability | Largely Stabilized | The gap between the official and parallel exchange rates has narrowed, reflecting increasing confidence in the new currency, a direct result of the central bank halting quasi-fiscal operations. |
| Current Account Balance | Projected Surplus of 1.9% of GDP | Sustained strong export performance, particularly in mining, alongside robust diaspora remittances, continues to build a solid foundation for the nation’s external position. |
| Average Income per Person (GNI) | Above US$3,000(ZIMSTAT Review) | A critical upward revision that significantly brings the nation closer to the Lower Middle-Income threshold and provides a better foundation for the 2030 target. |
These numbers collectively attest to the wisdom and efficacy of the current administration’s economic policies, which have focused on macroeconomic stability, fiscal consolidation, and leveraging the country’s natural resource endowments. The anticipated 6.0% GDP growth signals that the economy is back on a high-growth path, a prerequisite for structural transformation.
The national aspiration of attaining an Upper Middle-Income Status by 2030 requires a sustained period of high, inclusive growth, and the latest figures indicate a positive step in the right direction.
While the rebound to 6.0% growth is commendable, external partners like the IMF project a medium-term slowdown to around 3.5% annually. This indicates that while the immediate stabilization measures have worked, the hard work of structural reform must be accelerated. Clearing the nation’s debt arrears remains a key structural hurdle that limits access to international finance.
The National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1), now culminating, and the forthcoming NDS2 (2026-2030), provide the clear policy roadmap. Continued focus on infrastructure, human capital development, and enhanced governance is paramount. The government’s consistent commitment to the Vision 2030 agenda provides the necessary political will to tackle these deeper reforms.
The international financial institutions (IFIs) have offered both recognition and guidance on Zimbabwe’s recent performance.
Following its 2025 Article IV Consultation, the IMF Executive Board welcomed the recent tightening of policies, specifically praising the halting of quasi-fiscal operations and monetary financing, which has been crucial in reducing inflation and achieving a “degree of macroeconomic stability.” They project the 6.0% growth rebound for 2025. However, they counsel for further fiscal discipline, urging the government to strengthen public financial management, rationalize tax incentives, and contain the public wage bill to avoid crowding out private sector growth.
The World Bank notes the improved macroeconomic stability and 6% growth projection. Their engagement remains limited primarily to technical assistance and advisory work due to Zimbabwe’s ongoing debt distress and non-accrual status. They emphasize that while the country has “considerable growth potential,” long-term progress hinges on debt restructuring and arrears clearance to unlock critical international financing and attract Foreign Direct Investment.
In essence, the IFIs acknowledge the significant progress made in achieving macroeconomic stabilization but stress that structural and governance reforms are the non-negotiable next steps to ensure the gains are durable and to sustain the momentum required for the Upper Middle-Income Status by 2030. The government’s proactive re-engagement strategy continues to be the key to unlocking the full potential of this resource-rich economy.
